Rasmussen Reports: We’re beating McCain – barely

Just before the weekend, Rasmussen Reports has produced its Electoral College update.  If the election were held today, Democrats would lead Republicans in the electoral college 260 to 240 with 38 electoral votes categorized as toss ups – in other words, margins that would justify Diebold and voting machine manufactures to conveniently deliver this election for McBush.  

The breakdown is as follows: 

 

Safely Democratic: California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), District of Columbia (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (21), Maine (4), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (12), New York (31), Rhode Island (4), and Vermont (3).

Likely Democratic: Minnesota (10), New Jersey (15), Oregon (7), and Washington (11).

Leans Democratic: Iowa (7), Michigan (17), New Mexico (5), Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10).

Toss-Up: Colorado (9), Nevada (5), New Hampshire (4), and Ohio (20).

Leans Republican: Florida (27), Missouri (11), Virginia (13).

Likely Republican: Arkansas (6) and North Carolina (15).

Safely Republican: Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arizona (10), Georgia (15), Idaho (4), Indiana (11), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (9), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (8), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (34), Utah (5), West Virginia (5) and Wyoming (3).

Interestingly enough, “the polling data used for each state is based upon an average of the results for Barack Obama vs. John McCain and Hillary Clinton vs. John McCain.”

The number suggest if the election were held today, the Democrats would win, but it would be a close call. But then we still have a little over five months to go – and amazingly, McCain escaped his primary barely bloodied.

The long time rule of thumb in elections, is that the candidate who emerges from the primaries most bloodied tends to improve upon his mid-May numbers so long as he or she gets the full support of the party.

Obama certainly proved his pound for pound mettle in the most grueling of political boxing matches against Hillary Clinton, and should they resolve the primary in short order, which the results of Saturday’s Rules Committee meeting indicates may happen sooner than later, expect these numbers to skew upward for Obama.
 

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